NFL Week 13 Picks! Bengals over Chiefs?!

Week 13 should bring us some great action in football. The Kansas City Chiefs look to beat Joe Burrow for the first time in his career, and the 49ers and Dolphins clash to see if the 49ers backfield can beat the Dolphins backfield, who is basically filled with former 49ers. And oh by the way, Deshaun Watson is back, which some may have mixed emotions about. We aren’t going to be talking about the history, story and court judgement of these games, but picking them game by game.

Steelers (4-7) EVEN @ Falcons (5-7) | Winner: Falcons | Spread: Falcons

This game is a toss up as the spread suggests. Some may say Pittsburgh and its surprisingly nice play over the last few weeks can win, or say may say it will be the Atlanta Falcons. I’m going Atlanta, mainly because I think the Steelers run defense, despite being top ten in yards allowed per game, will struggle against Marcus Mariota, since when having to go against legitimate rushing quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, they have struggled. Tyler Allgeirer fantasy owners, expect a decent game and a touchdown, as the Falcons look to climb back in the NFC South division race.

Packers (4-8) -3 @ Bears (3-9) | Winner: Bears | Spread: Bears

Upset alert! Assuming Justin Fields returns, the Bears will take down their arch nemesis at home. Chicago has had a plethora of close games this season, and Green Bay, who is 31st in the NFL with rushing yards allowed per game with 154.8, will have no answer for Fields, David Montgomery and the running game, which is first in rushing yards per game! I say not only does Chicago beat Green Bay, they force some to turnovers on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to make this a blowout victory for the three win home underdogs!

Jaguars (4-7) @ Lions (4-7) -1 | Winner: Jaguars | Spread: Jaguars

This game is basically two teams that have made some great upsets with two great future’s clashing in the middle of the season. The Lions, who despite having three straight wins before a three point loss to Buffalo, seem less ready than Jacksonville, who is coming off of a 28-27 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, mainly because Trevor Lawrence threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions secondary has nothing to stop that, even if Jamaal Williams gets in the end zone again, as the league’s rushing touchdown leader continuously does. Give me Jacksonville in a tight one.

Jets (7-4) @ Vikings (9-2) -3 | Winner: Vikings | Spread: Vikings

Don’t let Mike White’s three touchdown performance against Chicago last week fool you! White was announced the starter late in the week, and Chicago didn’t have much time to prepare for hm. But now with a week of preparation and a wide receiver who makes David Tyree’s helmet catch look like a basic catch every other week, the Vikings should be able to take control of an inconsistent Jets team. Mike White has a few turnovers, and the Vikings offense scores more than 30, in a dominant win to put the Vikings win total in double digits.

Commanders (7-5) -2 @ Giants (7-4) | Winner: Commanders | Spread: Commanders

The Commanders are going up, and the Giants are going down, and that will continue. The Giants have lost back to back games and three out of their last four, while the Commanders have won their last three and six out of their last seven games, putting them at 7-5. Brian Robinson has been terrific on the ground, and Taylor Heinicke has played his role through the air. Not only have they been playing well recently, but the Giants main source of offense has been their running game (their 6th in the NFL in rushing yards per game) and the Commanders have the 8th best rushing defense statistically in the NFL, allowing just over 108 yards on the ground per game! The Commanders and rolling, and it won’t stop Sunday!

Titans (7-4) @ Eagles (10-1) -4.5 | Winner: Titans | Spread: Titans

There is a reason why the Eagles are just a 4.5 point favorite at home against the Titans, and it’s because their record doesn’t state what they actually are as a team. At the same time, the Eagles are a good football team. But the Titans have the pieces and skill to manipulate the Eagles. The Eagles have a good run game, however, the Titans have are averaging just 84.5 rushing yards allowed per game this season (3rd best in the NFL), and have had a lot of close games (6.6 average points per victory), meaning teams haven’t had to stop running the ball to try to come back. The Eagles biggest weakness is also their run defense, which isn’t a great thing when going against Derrick Henry. Give me Tennessee in an upset!

Broncos (3-8) @ Ravens (7-4) -9.5 | Winner: Ravens | Spread: Ravens

There is a reason why the Ravens are double digit point favorites against Denver in this game. But there is a clear path for the Broncos to win. If they pound the football with Latavius Murray and win the time of possession battle (which isn’t too unrealistic), it will allow them to get several red zone opportunities. And if they’re finally able to covert in the red zone and take an early lead, Baltimore then needs to pass on a pass defense that is statistically a top three pass defense in the NFL. That could cause some trouble for Baltimore. That being said, Baltimore is the more talented team and will win, but they can’t let Denver’s offense start converting in the red zone, because that would get them into the “danger zone” as Tom Cruise and Top Gun would say. Learn more on the Cool Sports Newsletter, where I previewed the game in-depth!

Browns (4-7) -8 @ Texans (1-9-1) | Winner: Browns | Spread: Browns

Deshaun Watson is back playing football! It has been a near two years since Deshaun Watson has played an NFL game after a year where he sat out while dealing with sexual assault allegations. And it’s only fitting he goes against his former team: the Houston Texans. However, are we going to see rust or skill? I think they’ll run the ball the majority of the game with Nick Chubb to ease Watson back into play, especially against the Texans, but I think he either he has a good game (like multiple touchdowns, no picks, decent passing yards, good passer rating) or has a bad game (minimal touchdowns, multiple interceptions, low passer rating). I don’t see him having just a below-above average game or a good game. Well, I think he’ll dominate against his former team, throwing for three or more touchdowns, as the Browns blow them out!

Seahawks (6-5) -7 @ Rams (3-8) | Winner: Seahawks | Spread: Rams

The Seattle Seahawks are basically in a near must win situation, as they are currently out of the playoffs but could get back to being a tiebreaker away from leading in the division by winning Sunday (assuming San Francisco losses), and it would also be a good win knowing one of the Giants or Commanders is going to lose. Geno Smith is going to play well, but I see the Rams keeping it closer than Seahawks fans would like. But don’t worry Seahawks fans, you’ll win, just not by the amount you’re hoping for!

Dolphins (8-3) @ 49ers (7-4) -4.5 | Winner: Dolphins | Spread: Dolphins

The Dolphins backfield is filled with former 49ers–Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson–and they’re going against the current 49ers backfield. I think the 49ers are a worthy favorite, because of Christian McCaffrey’s play and Jimmy Garoppolo surprisingly amazing play, and a defense that keeps them in games consistently. On the other hand though is my NFL MVP, Tua Tagovailoa, my runner up in offensive player of the year, Tyreek Hill, who leads the NFL in receiving yards, and Jaylen Waddle, who is 5th in the NFL in receiving yards. I think that offense will complete the upset out west, and put the Dolphins back at first in the AFC East!

Chiefs (9-2) -2 @ Bengals (7-4) | Winner: Bengals | Spread: Bengals

Now sorry 49ers and Dolphins fans, but this is the game of the week. And it may possibly go down as game of the year! The Cincinnati Bengals, who have been rolling after an 0-2 start, are home underdogs against a team they beat not once, but twice last season. And neither team has made a large game changing move since to shake up the game. Burrow and the Bengals have had the advantage against Kansas City, and they’re just starting to hit their peak this season. Now with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase back; Chase will have over 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown on Sunday, the Bengals offense is going to go for over 30 points, as the Chiefs, in a very close game, will find their No. 1 spot on the Chase’s Sports News weekly NFL power rankings, slip away!
Stat to know: According to ESPN, Patrick Mahomes had just a 26 QBR and a 62% completion percentage last season against the Bengals when they rushed three players, which great ESPN broadcaster Dan Orlovsky was breaking down on Sunday, and how the Bengals not only frequently rush three players, but how they’ve succeeded at it. Let’s see if Andy Reid has anything up his sleeve to have their offensive production grow when Cincinnati rushes three!

Chargers (6-5) @ Raiders (4-7) -2.5 | Winner: Raiders | Spread: Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are not what their 4-7 record states. All of Las Vegas’s losses but one have been by one possession, and those include a five point loss to the Chargers, a two point loss to the Titans, a one point loss to the Chiefs and a five point loss to the Colts. I get that one of those losses are against the Chargers, but the Raiders are improved since then. Davante Adams has 999 yards receiving this season, and he will have another great game against this Chargers secondary, put the ball in the end zone a fair share of times, and move up to 5-7 against their division rival.

Colts (4-7-1) @ Cowboys (8-3) -10.5 | Winner: Cowboys | Spread: Colts

The Cowboys are on a roll, and their thanksgiving game officially turned my mind on the positive side of the Cowboys. The Vikings game did as well, but to see Tony Pollard struggle and Ezekiel Elliott take his place, to see Dak Prescott turn the ball over but the defense make stops consistently to offset it, it makes me feel like this team has an answer for nearly all of their weakness. So whether it’s Prescott, Pollard, Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons (my defensive player of the year) or anybody else, I feel like there are a lot of players on this team that can step up and take over a game. I’ve really liked how the Colts have looked since hiring Jeff Saturday as their head coach, and making the switch back to Matt Ryan, so I see them covering as a double digit point underdog, but not by much, as the Cowboys, with a possible tie-breaker game against the Eagles later this season, can make a sneaky run for the NFC East title!

Saints (4-8) @ Buccaneers (5-6) -3.5 | Winner: Buccaneers | Spread: Buccaneers

While it was a very disappointing overtime loss to the Browns last week, I have really liked how the Buccaneers have played since losing to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady’s touchdowns have increased, even if it results in a few more turnovers. Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette have been a great running back duo over the past few weeks, and Mike Evans is on pace to continue his consecutive 1,000+ yard receiving seasons, as he already has the most 1,000+ receiving yards seasons straight to start his career, and is now looking to break Jerry Rice’s record for the most consecutive 1,000+ receiving yard seasons with 10; Evans is currently at eight. The offense, and the defense is good, and will take down a very inconsistent New Orleans football team.

That’s how I see these NFL games going down. But tell me what you think! Are the Bengals really going to upset the Chiefs? Are the Dolphins really going to win in San Francisco? Are the Bears really going to mock Aaron Rodgers comment of “I own you” to Chicago a few years ago? We’ll just have to wait and see!


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